(1)Necessity from industry perspectives
・ The aerospace industry has an advanced high-tech aspect (in terms of R&D costs and
production amount). Japan has a very low international market share of around 6% in this
industry, with the exporting value representing just 1.5%. This is a key industry involving 200,000
components, ten times that of the automotive industry (20,000 components).
・ China is strongly promoting the strategy of conducing final assembly of small- to
medium-sized jet planes domestically.
・ In order to maintain and improve its human resources, technology and facilities, the aviation
industry must address civilian and military needs to maintain the overall production /
development capacity. The characteristics of civilian aircraft (low prices, advanced safety,
consideration to the environment) should complement the characteristics of military aircraft
(speed, high performance, etc.) to address a range of technological fields. The existence of the
industry itself is important.
(2)Demand prospect in Japan
・ Japan’s metropolitan area has a relatively small number of airports and runways compared
other major cities around the world, with each service offering a substantially greater capacity.
The overall number of domestic airline passengers does not increase unless the capacity of the
Haneda Airport increases. Although the number of departures and landings authorized for the
airport is expanding, demand quickly catches up, with the current handling capacity reaching its
limit.
・ In view of the global shift toward frequent flights with smaller aircraft, introducing RJ
(Regional Jet) and increasing the number of flights would result in growth in passenger numbers.
Under this scenario, 125 RJ planes are needed to service 1,000 flights each day. My personal
estimate points to this level of demand in Japan alone.
・ The travel time of 3 to 3.5 hours is believed to be the threshold for passengers to switch from
Shinkansen to airplanes. Networks with the metropolitan area hold the key.
・ The project should be viewed from a greater perspective, e.g. developing a new transportation
network using RJ.
・ Narita, Haneda and Yokota airports should be considered together.
・ Discussions are fruitless if we only consider the Japanese market. The global market must be
considered.
(3)Importance of type certification, etc.
・ Type certification of passenger aircraft is governed under regional frameworks such as JAR in
Europe and FAR in the United States (+ Canada). It is to our disadvantage if the developed
aircraft must obtain separate type certificates for each of the Asian countries involved. It is
said that type certification represents 10% of aircraft development costs. There is no prospect
of development without the outlook of unified aircraft requirements. We should investigate
consistency of aviation laws in Asian countries.
・ It is necessary to achieve consistency with airline companies’ business plans. The project
should proceed based on airline companies’ flow of decision-making from the planning to
aircraft handover stages.
・ The aviation industry can be described as a solution for industrial structural reforms
(creation of employment).
・ The use of ODA in related infrastructure development (e.g. airport development) should be
considered. |
