｜English｜Japanese｜
| 【Overview of the Second Examination Committee meeting】 |
| ■Date / time：14:00 to 16:05 on July 31, 2002 (Wed) |
| ■Venue：Main conference room, 7F TMG Main Building No.1 |
| ■Content：Marketing, tasks in passenger jet development |
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（1）Marketing ・ When developing a small- to medium-sized jet passenger plane, it is absolutely necessary to have a launch customer (initial user). ・ In the case of YS-11, it was the first model and had numerous uncovered issues in after-sales support. For example, parts were supposed to be delivered within 40 hours. However, it was not as simple to obtain the government’s expert permit for aviation parts, classified as strategic supplies. After a while, we were granted an exception treatment of only requiring ex-post factor approval. ・ In order to produce an aircraft that sells, it is necessary to develop a product that matches market needs and release it at the right timing. To this end, we must seize future-oriented technologies. Although we want to do that, there has not been enough data accumulated. The project must develop sellable aircraft, while overcoming data shortfall and reducing risks. ・ The project cannot secure feasibility unless the model to be developed sells 300 to 350 units. Such a figure is not achievable unless we target the global market. ・ The development cannot be forged ahead unless we foresee a demand of 500 to 600 units worldwide. It may be possible to commence if a launch customer purchases 50 to 100 units. There are 7 to 8 types with the capacity of 20 to 100 seats. The question is which type the project aims at. ・ Aircraft is a business asset, and we cannot afford to lease it unless it is a good quality asset. As the leaser, we cannot lease it out without the presence of a secondary market. （2）Tasks in passenger jet development ・ The scheme of the Aviation Industry Promotion Law is well designed. International joint development would not exclude independent development. ・ It is important to determine feasibility. Even if the national government funds the development 100%, actually selling the developed aircraft would involve costs several times as much. ・ Demands must be observed on a micro-economic approach. Airline companies make detailed examination of the market, including passenger attributes (e.g. large proportion of group bookings). Manufacturers find it difficult to market aircraft without accumulation of sales data, e.g. selling several units domestically before trying to market it overseas. It is also necessary to take a top-down sales approach. ・ Trading companies should be utilized more actively. Their know-how should be applied when negotiating with customers. There should be a family of aircraft models. Having only one model is not feasible. Once you decide to go ahead with aircraft development, it must be done quickly. ・ Completely new models with no known brand name cannot be leased out easily. Airbuses, in the early days, provided residual value guarantee to airline carriers and financial institutions. It is essential to provide support to users on how the aircraft’s value can be retained. A secondhand market cannot be established unless a substantial number of units circulate on the market. ・ This project is done to revitalize Japanese industries. European countries took a unified approach in introducing airbuses against U.S. competitors. Who is going to promote it for their countries? Leasing in today’s world will be different from leasing in five years. We must adopt a new approach, e.g. providing aircraft and crew for free to encourage the aircraft’s use. ・ When you look at the number of models and the number of competitors, it is difficult for the project to achieve feasibility. If you try to see it in a positive light, we may have some chance if Japanese technology can develop aircraft that provides passenger convenience and safety, and offers unique aircraft style / better transportation services at the same time. ・ The project must be undertaken with commitment from national governments. ・There is no forecast of domestic demand. The problem lies in metropolitan airports. Landing / departure at Haneda handles around 250 passengers each time, and therefore requires aircraft with the seating capacity of around 300. Unless we can foresee the increase in capacity at metropolitan airports, we cannot foresee needs at regional airports within Japan. Overseas carriers are not as strong. The new aircraft must have the backing from domestic carriers to ensure growth. The situations should be examined on the basis of domestic demand. |
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